卡塔尔和阿布扎比大奖赛取消为何迟迟未宣布？
由于中东地区持续冲突，外界数月来普遍认为赛季收官战卡塔尔大奖赛和阿布扎比大奖赛的取消不仅可能性很大，甚至不可避免，但相关决定迟迟未宣布。
卡塔尔和阿布扎比大奖赛迟迟未取消的背后原因是什么？
关于本赛季最终在卡塔尔和阿布扎比举行的世界一级方程式锦标赛分站的决定，时间已所剩不多——但主办方态度强硬，不肯轻易让步
一级方程式赛车在比赛起点列队
鉴于中东地区持续的冲突，几个月以来人们一直认为，赛季收官阶段的卡塔尔和阿布扎比大奖赛不仅有可能被取消，而且是注定会被取消。
商业版权持有方一直在制定应急计划，同时表面上坚称这些比赛仍将举行。F1围场内的许多人都纷纷效仿：伊莫拉附近的酒店在阿布扎比站比赛的那个周末几乎被预订一空。
尽管人们普遍假设卡塔尔和阿布扎比的比赛将不可避免地被取消，但这些比赛的推广方表面上仍然坚定地表示比赛将按计划进行。阿布扎比甚至已经公布了演出阵容，包括萨拉·拉尔森、手创乐队、谜幻乐团和刘易斯·卡帕尔迪等音乐人。那些看重社交媒体上人们言论的人会注意到，拉尔森随后声称她不会前往。
这一切都是围绕一个持续进行的博弈的一部分，即如果这些比赛被取消，谁将承担损失。大体而言，当推广方取消比赛时，最终蒙受损失的是他们自己，因为他们与F1签订的合同规定无论如何都必须支付举办费。如果是商业版权持有方取消比赛，则会失去这些费用。
据广泛报道，卡塔尔和阿布扎比站的举办费分别为每年5500万美元和4000万美元，但据了解，这些数字带有很大的猜测成分。尽管如此，所涉及的金额仍然是巨大的。
各场赛事推广方之间的合同各不相同，尤其是那些由政府而非传统商业实体支持的赛事。但当赛事取消、资金损失时，责任归属总会引发争执——尤其是在取消是由外部因素强制造成的情况下。
今年F1将前往马来西亚举办巴林大奖赛
“我们会在合适的时机做出决定，”F1首席执行官斯特凡诺·多梅尼卡利于七月底表示。“那个时点不会早于九月中旬。就目前而言，卡塔尔和阿布扎比的赛事已确认举办。
“顺便说一句，门票已经售罄了。这是一个令人难以置信的信号，说明这项运动的规模已经比我们世界正在经历的问题大得多。当然，如果到九月中旬之前，局势还没有按照我们认为应有的方式变得明朗，我们就会做出决定。”
这段表态不仅显示出他对F1在地缘政治中的重要性持一种相当麻木不仁的看法，还让决策时间点变得更加模糊：到底是在九月中旬之前还是之后做出决定？无论如何，这个日期现在已经过去了。
多梅尼卡利还确认，如果最后两站比赛被取消，赛季将不会以拉斯维加斯的背靠背双站比赛收尾。尽管一些消息源仍然声称这样的安排有可能实现，但事实并非如此。F1本就需要小心处理与拉斯维加斯其他利益相关方的关系，而且据了解，在当地连续举办两场比赛肯定不会受到当地商界的欢迎。背靠背双站比赛还会与感恩节假期冲突。
如果卡塔尔和阿布扎比大奖赛无法举行，为最后一站比赛寻找一个主办地的需求还涉及合同问题。按目前的情况来看，如果这两站从赛历上消失，F1将只剩下21场比赛。虽然这足以让它履行大部分转播合同，但据了解，至少有一份合同规定必须举办22场。
伊莫拉曾被视为赛季收官战的铁定人选，但在意大利大奖赛周末期间有消息传出，一级方程式在取消卡塔尔和阿布扎比两站比赛一事上遭到了这两地的强烈反对。据了解，它们的态度是一切照常，因为几个月来它们并未成为伊朗的目标。
伊莫拉原本已被安排举办一场临时增加的赛季收官战
因此，商业版权持有方面前将面临艰难的日子，出于后勤方面的原因，它必须尽快作出决定。为了实现2030年净零排放的目标，一级方程式如今通过海路运输大量设备，这自然意味着更长的准备周期。
除了将基础设施海运至海湾地区所需的时间之外，还有一个现实问题：货物必须经过霍尔木兹海峡，而这一咽喉要道是否通行，取决于伊朗与美国之间敌对状态的变化。如果收官阶段的几站比赛仍按目前的日程进行，更多的货物将不得不改走空运，从而推高成本并增加排放。
而当这场围绕商业权利持有方与中东赛事推广方之间的边缘博弈不断演变时，各车队也有问题需要面对。如果各自国家的外交部门建议不要前往中东旅行，他们将无法获得保险。
但目前，英国政府的建议是："所有目前在中东的英国国民应为可能的航班取消、间歇性的空域关闭以及潜在的旅行中断做好准备。" 美国国务院则表示，打算前往该地区的人应"重新考虑"。这两者都不等于警告不要出行。
因此，据了解，本赛季最后两站比赛被取消的风险正在降低。
英文原文
What’s behind the delay in cancelling the Qatar and Abu Dhabi GPs?
The clock is ticking for a decision to be made regarding the final F1 rounds of the year in Qatar and Abu Dhabi – but the hosts are playing hardball
F1 cars lined up at the start of the race
Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, for several months now it’s been assumed that the cancellation of the season-closing Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix is not just likely, but inevitable.
The commercial rights holder has been making contingency plans while outwardly maintaining that these races are still on. Many in the F1 paddock have followed suit: the hotels in the Imola vicinity are almost fully booked for the weekend occupied by the Abu Dhabi round.
Despite the assumption that Qatar and Abu Dhabi will inevitably be cancelled, the promoters of those races remain outwardly determined that they will go ahead as planned. Abu Dhabi has gone as far as announcing music acts including Zara Larsson, The Script, Imagine Dragons and Lewis Capaldi. Those who set store by what people say on social media will note that Larsson has subsequently claimed she will not be going.
This is all part of an ongoing dance over who would pick up the tab if those races were to be cancelled. Broadly speaking, when promoters cancel races, they are the parties who end up out of pocket since their contracts with F1 oblige them to pay the sanctioning fee anyway. If the commercial rights holder cancels the races, it forfeits those fees.
The sanctioning fees for Qatar and Abu Dhabi have been widely reported as $55million and $40million per year respectively, but it’s understood that these figures are highly speculative. Nevertheless, the sums involved are significant.
Contracts vary between promoters, especially those races which are backed by states rather than conventional commercial entities. But when events are cancelled and money is lost, there will always be a tussle over liability – especially when cancellations are enforced by outside circumstances.
F1 is going to Malaysia for the Bahrain GP this year
“We will take the decision at the right time,” said F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali at the end of July. “That moment will be not before the middle of September. For us today, the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are confirmed.
“By the way, they are already sold out. That is an incredible sign of how much the sport is bigger than the problem that our world is living. But of course, if the situation would not be clearer the way that we believe it should be, before the middle of September, we will take the decision.”
Besides showing a rather tone-deaf perspective on F1’s importance in relation to geopolitics, this pronouncement also muddied the picture of when the decision would be made: before or after the middle of September? Either way, this date has now passed.
Domenicali also confirmed that if the final two rounds were cancelled, the season would not end with a double-header in Las Vegas. Despite some sources still claiming such an event is likely, it is not. F1 already has to tread carefully around the other Las Vegas stakeholders and it is understood that holding back-to-back events there would definitely not be welcomed by the local business community. A double-header would also clash with the Thanksgiving holiday.
The requirement to find a home for a final round in the event of the Qatar and Abu Dhabi GPs not happening is also contractual. As it stands, if they were to disappear from the calendar, F1 would be left with 21 rounds. While this would enable it to fulfil the majority of its broadcast contracts, it’s understood that at least one stipulates 22.
Imola was viewed as a shoo-in for the season finale but, during the Italian Grand Prix weekend, it emerged that F1 has experienced significant pushback from Qatar and Abu Dhabi regarding the cancellation of their rounds. It is understood their position is one of business as usual, since they have not been targeted by Iran for several months.
Imola had been cued up to host an impromptu season finale
Difficult days therefore lie ahead for the commercial rights holder, since it will be required to make a decision soon for logistical reasons. In its quest to reach net zero emissions by 2030, F1 now transports a great deal of equipment via sea. This naturally means longer lead times.
Beyond the timescales involved in sea-freighting infrastructure to the Gulf region, there is the practical question of it having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint which opens and closes depending on the state of hostilities between Iran and the USA. Should the final rounds remain as presently scheduled, more freight would have to go by air, increasing costs as well as emissions.
And while this game of brinksmanship evolves between the commercial rights holder and the Middle Eastern promoters, the teams also have questions to ask. Should their respective governments' foreign offices advise against travel to the Middle East, they will not be insured.
But at the moment, the British government's advice is "All British nationals currently in the Middle East should be prepared for possible flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions." The US Department of State says putative visitors to the region should "reconsider". Neither of these amounts to a warning not to travel.
As such, it's understood that the risk of cancellation for these final two rounds is receding.
Motorsport.com ·
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