安东内利意大利大奖赛夺冠，F1世界冠军之争是否已无悬念？
安东内利在意大利大奖赛从第19位发车夺冠，将F1世界冠军积分榜领先优势扩大至66分。在最多还剩10站比赛的情况下，他极有望锁定2026年世界冠军。
在基米·安东内利赢得意大利大奖赛之后，F1 世界冠军之争是否已经结束了？我们的撰稿人们各有看法
在安东内利惊艳赢得意大利大奖赛之后，他在 F1 世界锦标赛中的领先优势扩大到了 66 分……
基米·安东内利在意大利大奖赛上从发车区第 19 位发车并最终夺冠，这是一场宣言式的表现，并将他在世界一级方程式锦标赛中的领先优势扩大到 66 分。
在最多还剩 10 站比赛的情况下——具体取决于卡塔尔和阿布扎比大奖赛以及中东局势——这位意大利车手已经处于极其有利的位置，有望锁定 2026 年的世界冠军。
那么，2026年F1世界冠军之争就此结束了吗？我们的专栏作者们各抒己见。
要从现在开始丢掉冠军，安东内利得出现一代人才会遇到的大崩盘才有可能
我不想在欧洲赛段结束之前就断言一切已成定局，但这一站感觉意义非凡。从发车位的第19位一路杀到夺冠，而且击败的是像拉塞尔和维斯塔潘这样领跑车群的车手，这将被载入史册，成为安东内利首次向世人展示其F1世界冠军实力的一刻。
还剩大约10轮比赛，落后66分的差距并非无法逆转——只要他遭遇两次退赛，压力就会立刻压到这位20岁车手的头上——但他似乎丝毫没有被这些影响，甚至可以说，他现在的表现比他在F1崭露头角的职业生涯中的任何时候都要出色。
安东内利已经证明，他可以在需要时稳稳拿下好成绩，也能在胜利近在眼前时全力冲击冠军；这个周末在蒙扎，他实际上连续做到了这两件事。
是的，尽管每场比赛都输给拉塞尔只拿第二，这在数学上还不能确保锁定冠军，但由于他的队友预计将在阿塞拜疆因更换引擎而接受从发车末位起步的处罚，他有一个绝佳的机会把这种局面变成现实。
安德烈亚·基米·安东内利，梅赛德斯；乔治·拉塞尔，梅赛德斯
悬念还没结束——但拉塞尔将需要一些运气
安东内利在蒙扎确实给了拉塞尔争冠希望一记重击，但截至今天，还剩下10场比赛——仍有258分可以争取。
拉塞尔的落后已经扩大到66分，而且形势对他不利，他的沮丧情绪可以理解地会不断累积——尽管周日的失利中他表现得非常大度。
要弥补如此巨大的差距，拉塞尔需要天时地利人和全都到位。安东内利很少有失手的比赛；本赛季至今的13场大奖赛中，他有11次登上领奖台，而拉塞尔只有7次。
这种惊人的稳定性通常会导致世界冠军的诞生，很少有反例。巧合的是，反例就发生在去年。奥斯卡·皮亚斯特里在前13轮比赛中同样是11次登台，当时他领先队友兰多·诺里斯16分，领先马克斯·维斯塔潘81分，但最终他的得分却被两人反超。
除此之外，最近一次这样的情况是尼科·罗斯伯格在2014年创造的。这位德国车手在赛季前13场比赛中登上了11次领奖台，但队友刘易斯·汉密尔顿自己也拿到了10次领奖台，并且积分榜上只落后22分。换句话说，只有当前差距的三分之一不到。
所以，这样的追赶并非没有先例，维斯塔潘就证明过这一点——但那次的情形并不可比，因为拉塞尔和安东内利开的是同一辆车，而去年红牛车手和迈凯伦车手则不同。因此，虽然还有希望，但这位英国车手如今确实希望渺茫。
在安东内利赢得蒙扎站冠军之后，几乎已经没有什么能阻止他夺得今年的总冠军了。如果之前还有人怀疑，这个周末大概已经消除了预测其他结果的一切理由——除非这位意大利车手在赛道之外出了大问题。
毕竟，伊萨克·哈德贾尔也并不是计划好要缺席几场比赛的。所以，只要安东内利在接下来的几个月里远离拳击手套，他应该就没问题。只要他能出现在发车区——显然，无论从哪个位置发车——他看起来都将在20岁那年成为世界冠军。
而且这不仅仅是关于安东内利的事。拉塞尔作为他目前最接近的竞争对手，不仅要弥合巨大的积分差距——他还必须做到一件更难的事：保持自己仍然能在任何一个比赛周末击败安东内利的信念。
考虑到本赛季的走势，以及这位意大利车手进步的速度，这位英国车手看到自己的年轻队友变得如此出色，心里一定感到非常胆怯。
蒙扎也证实了法拉利很可能已经出局。夏尔·勒克莱尔其实从来都没真正参与争冠，而现在他落后太多，已经无法认真考虑冠军了。而汉密尔顿看上去也没有一辆能够持续挑战梅赛德斯车手们的赛车。同样的情况也适用于诺里斯和迈凯伦，他们车队本周末的弱点再次暴露无遗。
我真的看不到拉塞尔还有任何翻盘的可能。真的看不到。是的，还有很多积分可以争取，一级方程式历史上也发生过更离奇的事情，而且那些强大的梅赛德斯动力单元一直像是玻璃大炮（表面强大实则脆弱）。这些我都明白。
但安东内利取胜的方式，以及在梅赛德斯不处于惯常统治地位时拿到任何一个可得成绩的表现，对于一个20岁的车手来说是相当了不起的。
拉塞尔正在扭转局面，但即便如此，似乎也不足以经常战胜安东内利，而这正是他必须做到的事。不是像他现在大致做到的那样跟上节奏，而是要彻底压倒安东内利。
我只是觉得这不会发生，因为恐怕拉塞尔已经在这位年轻的意大利车手身上遇到了对手。
更重要的是，意大利大奖赛本应是安东内利的一次缓冲，是他启用补救机会（joker）的一场比赛——启用第五套动力单元本应是一场止损行动。结果他非但没有受损，反而给了拉塞尔一记心理上的重击。与此同时，拉塞尔之后仍然要接受引擎处罚，而且剩下的赛道中没有一条会像这里这样容易超车。
去年冠军争夺战的结局表明，10场比赛是一段漫长的时间，但那时是这一代最优秀的车手在后面追赶。而现在，是下一代最优秀的车手跑在最前面，而且他看起来无懈可击。我就在这里下结论。
英文原文
After Kimi Antonelli’s Italian GP win, is the F1 world title fight over? Our writers have their say
Following Antonelli’s stunning Italian GP victory, his F1 world championship lead is up to 66 points…
Kimi Antonelli’s Italian Grand Prix win from 19th on the grid was a statement performance and extends his lead in the Formula 1 world championship to 66 points.
With a maximum of 10 rounds left – subject to the Qatar and Abu Dhabi GPs and the situation in the Middle East – the Italian driver is in a supremely strong position to seal the 2026 world title.
So, is the 2026 F1 world title fight over? Our writers have their say.
It’d need to be a generational choke for Antonelli to lose it from here
I don’t want to say it is done and dusted before the European stretch of the season is over but this felt monumental. To go from 19th on the grid to victory, against the likes of George Russell and Max Verstappen at the front of the pack, is going to go down in history as the first moment Antonelli demonstrated his F1 world champion credentials.
A gap of 66 points with 10-ish rounds to go isn’t impossible to overturn – just two DNFs and the pressure is right on top of the 20-year-old – but he just doesn’t seem phased by any of it and, if anything, is driving better now than at any point in his burgeoning career in F1.
Antonelli has shown already he can bank solid results when needed, and also charge for the win when it is there for the taking; he effectively did both one after the other at Monza this weekend.
Yes, finishing second to Russell in every race still isn’t enough to mathematically seal the title, but with his team-mate expected to serve a back of the grid penalty for an engine change in Azerbaijan, he has a great opportunity to make that scenario a reality.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, George Russell, Mercedes
It’s not over – but Russell will need luck
Antonelli definitely dealt a sizeable blow to Russell’s title hopes in Monza but, as of today, there are 10 rounds to go – 258 points to score.
Russell’s deficit is up to 66 points, and the dynamic isn’t favourable to him, as frustration will understandably be growing – though he was very gracious in defeat on Sunday.
In order to make up such a substantial gap, Russell will need the stars to align. Antonelli doesn’t have many off days; in 13 grands prix so far this season, he has finished on the podium 11 times to Russell’s seven.
That remarkable consistency typically leads to a world title, with few examples to the contrary. Coincidentally, it happened just last year. Oscar Piastri also had 11 podiums from the first 13 rounds, by which time he was 16 points ahead of team-mate Lando Norris and 81 points clear of Max Verstappen, but he ended up outscored by both.
Other than that, the most recent one was Nico Rosberg in 2014. The German had recorded 11 podiums in the first 13 races, but team-mate Lewis Hamilton had 10 podium finishes himself and was just 22 points down in the standings. Three times fewer than the current gap, in other words.
So, such a recovery wouldn’t be unprecedented, as shown by Verstappen – but it wasn’t comparable given Russell and Antonelli have the same car, unlike the Red Bull racer and the McLaren drivers last year. So, while there’s hope, the Briton really is a long shot by now.
There’s really very little to suggest anything can still stop Antonelli from clinching the title this year after his Monza victory. If anyone had doubts before, this weekend probably removed the last arguments for predicting any other outcome - barring something going completely wrong for the Italian off track.
After all, Isack Hadjar didn’t exactly plan to miss a couple of races. So, as long as Antonelli stays away from boxing gloves for the next couple of months, he should be fine. If he shows up on the grid - regardless of where he starts, apparently - he looks set to become world champion at the age of 20.
It’s not only about Antonelli, either. Russell, still his closest rival, doesn’t just need to close a massive points gap - he has to do something even more difficult: maintain the belief that he can still beat Antonelli on any given weekend.
Given how this season has unfolded, and the speed of the Italian’s progress, it must be daunting for the Briton to see just how brilliant his young team-mate has become.
Monza also confirmed Ferrari is probably out of the picture. Charles Leclerc never really was in it, and now he’s simply too far behind to seriously think about the title. And Hamilton doesn’t appear to have a car capable of challenging the Mercedes drivers consistently. The same applies to Norris and McLaren, whose weaknesses were exposed again this weekend.
I just don't see a way back for Russell. I really don't. Yes, there are a lot of points on the table, stranger things have happened in F1, and those formidable Mercedes power units have been glass cannons. I get all that.
But the manner in which Antonelli has been amassing race wins, and collecting whichever result is available when Mercedes doesn't enjoy its usual supremacy, is a quite a marvel for a 20-year-old.
Russell is turning things around, but even that doesn't appear to be enough to be beating Antonelli on a regular basis and that's exactly what he would have to do. Not keeping pace, as he is roughly doing now, but battering Antonelli.
I just don't see it happening, because I'm afraid Russell has met his match in the young Italian.
What's more, the Italian Grand Prix was supposed to be Antonelli's mulligan, his joker race where taking his fifth power unit meant an exercise in damage limitation. Instead of sustaining damage, he has dealt Russell a mental hammer blow. Meanwhile, Russell still has to take his engine penalty later on, and there isn't a circuit left where overtaking will be this easy.
The conclusion to last year's title race has shown that 10 races is an eternity, but that was when the best driver of his generation was doing the chasing. Now, the best driver of the next generation is out in front, and he looks bulletproof. I am going to call it here.
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