维斯塔潘与红牛新约：赢家与输家
在超过一年的续约悬念之后，马克斯·维斯塔潘与红牛签下一份重磅新合同，尽管表面维持现状，却立即重塑了F1车手市场的格局。The 比赛分析了这一消息的赢家与输家。
在经过一年多关于维斯塔潘未来的猜疑之后，Verstappen与红牛之间的一份新合同，立即重塑了F1车手市场的格局——尽管表面上似乎维持了现状。
以下是我们对这一重大新闻中谁是赢家、谁是输家的看法。
显然，具体的财务条款不会公开，但我们可以放心地假设，这将是红牛付出一个小型大洋洲国家全年GDP的成本——并且大概还会附加一些额外许可，让Verstappen可以参与F1之外的赛车活动。
但是……随它去吧！红牛一下子从一个步履蹒跚的F1巨头，变成了一个不再需要担心失去其最大资产的、步履蹒跚的F1巨头——而这份资产同时也是整个围场上任何F1车队所拥有的最了不起的资产。
如果2027年的赛车特别糟糕，谣言在某种程度上会重新燃起，但这对红牛来说是一次巨大的胜利——并再次确认了它在未来数年内作为F1顶级车队之一的地位。
输家：卡洛斯·塞恩斯、奥斯卡·皮亚斯特里以及其他'梦想家'
塞恩斯与威廉姆斯的新合同——现在真的感觉像是'不妨就这样吧'——在维斯塔潘续约的前一天宣布，这恐怕并非巧合。
塞恩斯会是取代维斯塔潘在红牛位置的主要候选人吗？很可能不是。但车手市场的任何变动都会有利于他重返积分榜上半区的机会——而维斯塔潘决定离开F1（现在已确定没有发生），本会在'四大豪门'中制造一个小小的车手空缺，而塞恩斯本会是填补这一空缺的头号（或接近头号）人选。
维斯塔潘留队，切断了所有“梦想家”们的各种选择。这不仅仅是指中游车队的车手——如果像皮亚斯特里这样的人在迈凯伦真的感到不安，并且对领导红牛这样一支车队的前景有丝毫心动的话，这条路现在已经被长期封死了。而任何一直觊觎红牛的人现在都会明白，转会到那里将意味着，正如长期以来一直如此的那样，要正面迎战F1中最令人生畏的车手。
对于梅基斯在红牛至今为止的第一年多的时间，可以从几个角度来看待。2025年底的成绩很强，2026年迄今也不算糟糕，但正如我的同事艾德·斯特劳在最近的一篇专栏中相当有说服力地指出的那样，梅基斯时代的红牛似乎面临着失去其曾经独特之处的风险。
但梅基斯时代的红牛留住了维斯塔潘。尽管人才流失严重——如今已扩展到即将转会迈凯伦的比赛工程师吉安皮耶罗·兰比亚塞，以及据报道将加盟凯迪拉克的总工程师保罗·莫纳汉——洛朗·梅基斯还是留住了马克斯·维斯塔潘。
而且有很多理由怀疑，在克里斯蒂安·霍纳领导下的红牛，这次续约是否会发生。
对于阿斯顿·马丁（阿斯顿·马丁）来说，2026年有比追求大手笔签下车手这种不切实际的想法更重要的事情要做。
但现在，即使AMR底盘在阿德里安·纽维的带领下取得巨大进步，本田引擎也赶上来达到体面水平，阿斯顿·马丁也没有轻松的按钮可按来组建一个精英车手阵容。
你当然可以怀疑它是否曾经有能力吸引维斯塔潘。我自己也不太相信。但它或许本可以利用维斯塔潘的转会来为自己谋利，从而签下因此被挤走的任何车手。
但现在F1中所有最好的车手其实都没有需要做出的决定，而一旦费尔南多·阿隆索退役，阿斯顿·马丁可能不得不最大限度地利用中游方案来解决其车手问题。
当然，这是假设这辆车能真正具备竞争力。
维斯塔潘（Verstappen）逼近、可能前来夺走乔治·拉塞尔（拉塞尔）梅赛德斯席位的阴影——那本该是他的席位，基米·安东内利（安东内利）2026年的开局已经三重确保了这一点——如今已不复存在。
尽管拉塞尔本赛季至今的表现起伏不定，但从中期来看，梅赛德斯仍是他应该待的地方。如果他想成为世界冠军——他当然想——那么从安东内利手中夺回主导权，并寄希望于梅赛德斯的竞争力能够保持，是他实现这一目标的绝对最佳且“最轻松”的路径。
这在2026年可能不会实现，但可能在2027年实现，而且他已经不再承受来自唯一一位梅赛德斯可能追求作为立即升级人选的车手的外部压力。
第一——像现任车手伊斯克·哈贾尔、阿尔维德·林德布拉德，或许还有利亚姆·劳森，以及很可能是F2的尼古拉·措洛夫这样的车手，现在可供争取的红牛车队席位少了一个，整个车手阵容中的空缺位置也少了一个。
诚然，如果维斯塔潘离开，红牛肯定会从外部引进车手——但无论如何情况就是如此。
第二——所有这些车手，如果他们如愿取得进步，迟早都要与维斯塔潘正面对抗，而正如我们所知，这很可能是让你的F1生涯脱轨甚至毁掉的好办法。
维斯塔潘与红牛的新约必须被看作是对F1目前正在推行的这套他深恶痛绝的规则体系的一次信任投票。
整个赛季以来，他对这种F1赛车规则多少流露出一些厌倦，而考虑到他态度之强烈，维斯塔潘能忍受整个规则周期原本看起来确实不太可能。
现在他留下了。虽然我们肯定还会不时听到维斯塔潘对当前规则状态的批评，但最强车手因为不尊重这项产品而拂袖而去——这种最大的尴尬总算得以避免。
还记得F1车手过去常常换车队吗？那真是美好。
刘易斯·汉密尔顿转投法拉利是一记震撼，但在F1的整体趋势中似乎只是个异数——如今无论是顶尖车手还是越来越多的中游车手，都倾向于长期合同带来的财务保障，而车队也有能力提供这种保障。
这种感觉在车队积分榜顶端尤为明显。除了法拉利——汉密尔顿的年龄是一个问号——以及红牛车队那个不断换人的二号车手席位之外，各大强队的车手阵容在中期内似乎都被'冻结'了。
当前合同激励条款的现实情况——以及车手适应新车队的困难——似乎造就了一个更接近于棒球界给超级巨星开出的15年长约的市场，而不是我们更熟悉的F1那种抢座位游戏。
英文原文
A new deal between Max Verstappen and Red Bull, coming after well over a year of intrigue about Verstappen's future, has immediately reshaped the landscape of Formula 1's driver market - despite seemingly maintaining the status quo.
Here is our view of who the winners and losers are from this major piece of news.
Obviously no financial terms will be disclosed, but we can safely make the assumption that this will cost Red Bull the full GDP of a small Oceanian nation - and will presumably come with extra allowances for Verstappen in terms of exploring non-F1 racing activities.
But...like, whatever! In one fell swoop Red Bull has gone from a limping F1 giant to a limping F1 giant that doesn't have to worry about losing its greatest asset - who doubles as probably the greatest asset any F1 team up and down the grid has.
Rumours will re-fire in some capacity if the 2027 car is particularly bad, but this is a huge victory for Red Bull - and a reaffirmation of its status as one of F1's top dogs for years to come.
Losers: Carlos Sainz, Oscar Piastri and other 'dreamers'
It's probably no coincidence that Sainz's new Williams deal - which now really feels like a 'might as well' - was announced the day before a Verstappen extension.
Would Sainz have been a lead candidate to replace Verstappen at Red Bull? Likely not. But any driver market movement will have been good for his chances to returning to the top half of the grid - and Verstappen deciding to step away from F1, which now has conclusively not happened, will have created a small driver vacuum among the 'big four' that Sainz would've been top-of-the-queue (or close to it) to fill.
Verstappen staying cuts off options for all the 'dreamers'. And this doesn't have to just mean the midfield drivers - if someone like, say, Piastri is truly unsettled at McLaren and was at all tempted by the prospect of leading a team like Red Bull instead, that avenue is now shut off for a long time. And anyone who had been eyeing Red Bull will now know that a move there will mean, as it has for a long time, going up against the most fearsome driver in F1.
There are a few ways you could view the first year and a bit of Mekies at Red Bull up to now. Results were strong in late 2025 and not exactly terrible in 2026 so far, but as my colleague Edd Straw argued quite convincingly in a recent column, the Mekies-era Red Bull seemed at risk of losing what had made it special before.
But the Mekies-era Red Bull has kept Verstappen. Despite the brain drain, which has now extended to McLaren-bound race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase and reportedly Cadillac-bound chief engineer Paul Monaghan, Laurent Mekies has kept Max Verstappen.
And there's a lot of reason to doubt this extension would have happened at Christian Horner's Red Bull.
Aston Martin has much bigger fish to fry in 2026 than fanciful pursuits of big-money driver signings.
But now even if the AMR chassis makes huge strides under Adrian Newey and the Honda engine catches up to respectability, Aston Martin has no easy button to press for assembling an elite driver line-up.
You can certainly doubt whether it would have ever been able to attract Verstappen. I am not sure I believe it myself. But it may have been able to use a Verstappen move to its advantage, to secure whoever is displaced.
But now all the best drivers in F1 don't really have decisions to make, and once Fernando Alonso retires Aston Martin may have to make the most of midfield solutions to its driver question.
That is, of course, assuming the car becomes truly competitive.
The looming spectre of Verstappen coming to take George Russell’s Mercedes seat - and it would be his seat, Kimi Antonelli's start to 2026 has made triple-sure of that - is gone.
As shaky as Russell's year has been so far, Mercedes is the right place for him to be in the medium term. If he wants to be champion, and of course he does, then wrestling control back from Antonelli and hoping that Mercedes' competitive level keeps up is his absolute best and 'easiest' path to doing so.
It probably won't happen in '26, but it could happen in '27, and he's no longer under any outside pressure from the only driver that it would make sense for Mercedes to pursue as an immediate upgrade.
One - drivers like incumbent Isack Hadjar, Arvid Lindblad, maybe Liam Lawson and probably Formula 2's Nikola Tsolov now have one fewer Red Bull Racing seat to target and one fewer free spot in the overall roster.
Admittedly, had Verstappen left Red Bull would have surely pursued an outside recruit - but nonetheless.
Two - all of those drivers, if they progress as they hope, will have to go up against Verstappen at some point, which as we know is a great way to derail or potentially ruin your F1 career.
Verstappen's new Red Bull commitment must be taken as a vote of confidence in the steps F1 is taking with the current ruleset that he hates.
He has sounded some degree of fed up with this kind of F1 racing all through the season, and Verstappen putting up with the full regulations cycle genuinely felt unlikely given the strength of feeling on his end.
Now he stays. And while we will surely hear more criticism here and there from Verstappen as to the state of the formula, the ultimate embarrassment of having your strongest driver walk away because he doesn't respect the product is averted.
Remember when F1 drivers used to, like, change teams? That was nice.
Lewis Hamilton's switch to Ferrari was a jolt but seemed an aberration in the general trend of F1 - which is drivers, both top and increasingly midfield, favouring the financial security of long-term commitments and teams having the means to provide that security.
It is particularly felt at the top of the grid. Apart from Ferrari, where Hamilton's age is a question mark, and that revolving-door second Red Bull seat, the top teams appear 'frozen' for the medium term.
The current realities of contractual incentives - and the difficulty in adapting to new teams - seem to have created a market that's closer to the 15-year deals they hand out to superstars in baseball than the game of musical chairs that we're more used to in F1.
The Race ·
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