决定马德里首场F1比赛的5大因素
F1今日在马德里马德里赛道赛道迎来首场比赛，练习赛、排位赛及F2/F3垫场赛提供了一些线索，但缺乏历史数据意味着比赛仍可能充满意外。
F1各车队和车手在今日的西班牙大奖赛中驶入未知领域，因为这是大奖赛赛车首次在新马德里赛道赛道比赛。这意味着比赛将如何展开存在一些重大疑问，但已有指向潜在答案的线索。
练习赛和排位赛设定了一些预期，F2和F3垫场赛的进行方式也是如此，但这里缺乏可供参考的比赛历史，意味着可能会出现一些意外。
以下是可能影响比赛的五个关键方面。
截至撰写本文时，在马德里赛道举行的五场比赛——两场F2和三场F3——中，第二位发车有四次在起步时取得领先。在周日的F2和F3比赛中，两次都是杆位车手迅速向左移动，以覆盖第二位车手更强的起步。
从电视观众视角看，杆位在左侧，这符合惯例，因为它提供了弯道通常的赛车线，第二位在右侧。
可以肯定，迈凯伦的兰多·诺里斯会非常清楚杆位是否存在任何劣势，这可能意味着他会认识到需要覆盖安东内利。不过，迈凯伦通常良好的起步也可能抵消任何劣势。
发车格不同侧的抓地力往往存在差异，而且每一排也可能不同，但本周末第二位发车位的抓地力比杆位略好一些。这可能意味着安东内利在起步时有机会，而诺里斯需要根据起步情况考虑覆盖他。
马德里赛道的主要超车点是5/5a/6号减速弯，它位于2号弯后长直全油门路段之后，会颠簸路肩。
这在垫场赛中产生了最多的轮对轮较量，但大多数情况导致一辆车、偶尔两辆车切弯。正如乔治·拉塞尔所说，“设计上的一个小遗憾是缺乏清晰的超车机会”，这意味着这个减速弯将是任何人最好的机会。
“总的来说，比赛中超车会非常困难，”红牛的利亚姆·劳森说。
“在那里防守很容易，或者比普通弯道更容易，因为你只需把对方推出减速弯，他就必须归还位置。”
这意味着会有大量无线电抱怨、许多沮丧的进攻，以及在战斗中出错时可能发生碰撞或撞墙。
或者，正如亚历克斯·阿尔本所说，“如果你看了F3和F2比赛，全是车手在减速弯并排，然后抱怨其中一人没有让他们重新超过。”
轮胎退化——包括前轮颗粒化和后轮过热——一直是西班牙大奖赛周末的主要话题之一。
情况已从周五练习赛大幅改善，当时乔治·拉塞尔半开玩笑地说马德里赛道的比赛看起来要进站六次。
事实上，随着赛道橡胶化相当好，现在一停和二停之间在时间上看起来相当微妙。
因此，由于超车似乎很困难，这意味着车队可能倾向于告诉车手管理轮胎，走保守路线以尽量减少进站。
但这对于处理过热轮胎来说都很好；阻止颗粒化则要困难得多。因此，颗粒化的程度可能将是关键。
当被问及比赛会混乱还是平淡时，奥迪的尼科·霍肯伯格说：“看，这真的取决于我们是否出现颗粒化，我认为那将是主要驱动因素。”
“如果我们出现颗粒化，我认为那会相当严重，可能会很混乱。但就像你说的，你知道，你永远不知道。”
颗粒化可能引发转向不足，使高速弯变得非常困难，并引发退化水平迅速上升——带来一些策略复杂性。
所以所有目光都需要关注左前轮胎。
鉴于需要保护轮胎并可能勉强完成一停，安东内利建议“前10圈将是奶奶式驾驶”，而马克斯·维斯塔潘说“你需要依赖别人轮胎退化得非常严重”。
那么，这是否意味着这可能是一场领先者——无论是全场领先还是车群领先——可以大幅减速并轻松挡住一串赛车的比赛？
这是一条防守容易的赛道，用去年的赛车肯定会出现这种情况。
然而，由于能量部署因素，现在有可能利用巨大的动力优势在不太可能的地方完成超车，这意味着如果你过于执着于阻挡对手，你会更加脆弱。
但即使这样做机会也有限，因为有些全油门区域很容易挡住后面的车——昨天卡洛斯·塞恩斯在通往7号弯的上坡路段无意中阻挡瓦尔特利·博塔斯就说明了这一点。
回顾阿塞拜疆大奖赛的历史表明，比赛的特点往往取决于车手的集体心态。
当预测会混乱时——正如巴库多次发生的那样——车手可以改变方法。他们选择稳妥行事，感觉到远离他人的麻烦就能保证积分。
这种策略很好。然而，当每个人都这样做时，结果可能是一种平静，导致比赛沉闷。
凯迪拉克车手瓦尔特利·博塔斯认为，马德里赛道有可能不会带来其布局暗示的不可预测性——就像第一次练习赛零中断那样。
“就像FP1，如果人们太谨慎，那就会发生，”他说。
“但你永远不知道。就是这样的赛道：一个错误就会黄旗、安全车或红旗，所以肯定会有人犯错。”
尽管巴库在混乱与平静之间摇摆的例子，查尔斯·勒克莱尔认为最终马德里会介于两者之间。
“我不会用那些极端，但当然我不知道混乱方面，”他说。
“我认为在这样具有挑战性的赛道上可能会有一些红旗或事故。然而，巴库在超车方面可能相当疯狂，而在这里，我很难看到很多很多超车。”
英文原文
Formula 1’s teams and drivers head into the unknown in today’s Spanish Grand Prix as it’s the first time grand prix cars have raced at the new Madring. And that means there are some big questions about how the race will unfold, but with signposts to the potential answers.
Practice and qualifying have set some expectations, as has the way the Formula 2 and Formula 3 support races have played out, but the lack of racing history here to go on means that there could be some surprises.
Here are five key aspects that could shape the race.
In the five Madring races held at the time of writing - two Formula 2 and three Formula 3 races - second on the grid has taken the lead at the start four times. And in Sunday’s F2 and F3 races, on both occasions the polesitter moved left quickly to cover the stronger start of the driver in second.
Pole position is on the left side as the TV viewer looks at it, which is as per convention as it gives the usual racing line for the corner, with second on the right.
You can be certain that McLaren's Lando Norris will be very well aware if there is any disadvantage to being on pole position, potentially meaning he will recognise the need to cover Antonelli. Then again, it might be that McLaren's generally good launches offset any disadvantage.
There is often a difference in grip on different sides of the grid, as well as the potential for it varying depending on each row, but this weekend the second-placed grid slot has got a little more grip than pole position. That could mean an opportunity for Antonelli at the start, and the need for Norris to consider covering him depending on how the launch goes.
The main passing place at the Madring is the kerb-rattling Turn 5/5a/6 chicane that follows the long flat-out blast from Turn 2.
This has produced the most wheel-to-wheel action in the support races, but with the majority of instances resulting in one, or occasionally both, cars cutting the track. As George Russell put it, "the one small frustration in the design is the lack of clear overtaking opportunities", meaning the chicane is going to be the best chance anyone has.
"It's going to be very hard to overtake in the race in general," said Red Bull's Liam Lawson.
"It's very easy to defend there, or easier than normal corners, because you just push the guy off through the chicane and he has to give the place back."
This means there will be plenty of radio complaining, lots of frustrated attacks and the potential either for a collision or hitting the wall if you get it wrong in battle.
Or, as Alex Albon put it, "if you watched the F3 and F2 races, it was all drivers going side by side in the chicane and then complaining that one of them didn't let them back past."
Tyre degradation – both from front graining and rears overheating – has been one of the big talking points over the Spanish GP weekend.
The situation has improved a lot from Friday practice, when George Russell half-joked that the Madring race looked like it was heading for a six-stopper.
In fact, with the track having rubbered in quite well, things now look quite delicately poised time-wise between a one and a two-stopper.
So, with overtaking appearing to be difficult, that means the likely preference for teams will be to tell drivers to manage tyres and play the conservative route to minimise pit stops.
But that is all well and good for handling overheating tyres; stopping graining is a much harder task. Therefore, the level of graining will potentially be key.
As Audi’s Nico Hulkenberg said about whether the race would be chaotic or processional: “Look, it really depends, if we get graining, if we don't, I think that will be the main driver.
“If we get graining, I think it's going to be quite something and it might be chaotic. But, like you say, you know, you never know.”
Graining could trigger understeer, make the high-speed corners very difficult and trigger a rapid increase in degradation levels – throwing some strategy complications.
So all eyes need to be on those front-left tyres.
Given the need to protect the tyres and potentially eke out a one-stopper, Antonelli suggested "it's going to be grandmother driving in the first 10 laps", while Max Verstappen says "you need to rely on people [tyre] deg-ing very aggressively".
So does that mean this could be one of those races where the leader either of the race overall, or of a pack of cars, can back off dramatically and easily hold up a queue of cars?
It's a track where defending is easy, and with last year's cars it would definitely be on the cards.
However, with the deployment factor, it's now possible to use a huge power advantage to make a drive-by move in an unlikely place, meaning that you are more vulnerable if you are committing to holding up rivals too much.
But, there are limited opportunities even to do that as there are full-throttle zones where it’s easy to keep a car behind - Carlos Sainz inadvertently impeding Valtteri Bottas on the run up the hill to Turn 7 illustrated that yesterday.
A look back through the history of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix has shown that the characteristics of a race can often depend on the collective mindset of the drivers.
When chaos is predicted – as has happened many times in Baku – the drivers can change their approach. They opt to play it safe, sensing that staying out of everyone else’s trouble will guarantee points.
That tactic is all well and good. However, when everyone does it then the result can be a level of calmness that leads to a subdued race.
Cadillac driver Valtteri Bottas thinks it is possible that Madring does not deliver the unpredictability that its layout hints at – as happened when opening practice threw up zero stoppages.
“Like FP1, if people are too cautious, then that can happen,” he said.
“But you just never know. It's a track like that: one mistake and it will be yellow or safety car or red flag, so surely somebody is going to make a mistake.”
Despite the example of Baku bouncing between chaos and calm, Charles Leclerc thinks in the end Madrid will be somewhere in the middle.
“I wouldn't use those extreme ends, but surely I don't know about the chaos in a way,” he said.
“I think there may be some red flags or some incidents on a track that is so challenging like this one. However, Baku can be quite crazy with overtakes, while here, I struggle to see many, many overtakes.”
The Race ·
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