拉塞尔是否已错失夺冠良机？
The 比赛 分析乔治·拉塞尔在夏休期后能否反弹，还是已经浪费了争夺总冠军的机会，文章引用评论称他的机会看起来正在消失。
在F1夏休期期间，拉塞尔有很多需要思考的事情，因为他将以落后梅赛德斯队友安东内利50分的成绩重启赛季，安东内利已经获得六场胜利，而他只有两场。
那么，拉塞尔是否已经错失了他的夺冠良机？
《The 比赛》F1播客在赞德沃特站之前讨论了这个问题以及许多其他话题，荷兰F1解说员内尔松·瓦尔肯堡和本·安德森也加入了埃德·斯特罗的讨论。
下面你可以看到他们谈话的精华内容，但请务必点击这里收听完整节目，或点击这里观看节目。
“总是有希望的，尤其在这个赛季，可靠性问题可能而且已经对他们两人都产生了影响，但我觉得从纯粹的性能来看，他的机会看起来正在消失，仅仅是因为安东内利所展现出的那种底层性能，”本·安德森说。
“差距显然不像某些时候看起来那么大，因为拉塞尔在车库他那一侧遇到了一些特殊的技术问题。他说这是他整个赛车生涯中前所未有的一个赛季，更不用说他的F1生涯了。
“试着想想本赛季最近的一场比赛，哪一场你真正觉得拉塞尔在整个周末都压过安东内利。不只是像蒙特利尔那样的排位赛，他在最后时刻抢下杆位，也不是奥地利那样，他更好地利用了黄旗。那两个周末，到了正赛，真正紧咬他或者展现出更优正赛节奏的都是安东内利。
“所以我真觉得你得追溯到强制休赛前的日本站左右，那时拉塞尔才比安东内利更掌控局面。自从迈阿密站他击败诺里斯夺冠以来，安东内利就有一种势不可挡的感觉，即使在他落后的那些比赛里也是如此。
“他最终看起来比他的队友更令人印象深刻。所以如果这种上升势头延续到赛季下半程，凭借那几分缓冲优势，主动权就在安东内利手里，就看他能不能守住了。”
法尔肯堡补充道：“安东内利的周日正赛节奏，那是他的超能力。那种一往无前的稳定性，一圈接一圈地刷出速度，就好像轮胎根本不磨损，就好像能量部署完全没有任何问题。
“他在周日正赛里把一切都显得轻而易举，而拖累他稍微落后一点的，只是一时的过于激进或者一些技术上的不足。
“但接下来有意思的地方在于，如果拉塞尔真的能扭转局面，他需要法拉利和迈凯伦的帮助，才能有机会搅局梅赛德斯两台车之间的争夺。”
“如果拉塞尔赢下一场比赛，而安东内利获得第二，这还不够。但如果中间有三四辆别的车，情况就不同了。排位赛也是一样。”
拉塞尔能否扭转局面，关键在于弄清如何驾驶这些赛车跑出速度，因为他不得不放弃在2026年之前的职业生涯中一直让他受益的自然驾驶风格。
“在这些赛车里，高速弯完全不存在了，而这正是拉塞尔的一大强项，所以他再也不能依赖这一点了，”安德森解释道。
“他被局限在一种非常狭窄的驾驶方式里。这种赛车更偏爱那些特别擅长应对前轮抓地力不足、车身不安稳、打滑，以及几乎随时都像在雨天里驾驶的车手。总之就是低抓地力。”
“我看不出他怎么解决这个问题。这正是关键所在。他自己也承认这是他最大的问题之一。如果他一直以来被塑造得擅长高速时的勇气、并且对过弯平衡极其敏感，而这些特质如今不再那么重要，你要怎么把自己从这样一个人转变过来？
“你必须从根本上重新塑造自己，而这不可能在剩下的11场比赛里完成。”
拉塞尔并不是第一个为了挽救赛季而不得不适应变化的车手，但正如瓦尔肯堡所指出的，历史表明这是一件非常难以成功做到的事情。
“刘易斯·汉密尔顿在之前版本的F1中都没能做到。我们在塞巴斯蒂安·维特尔身上也见过这种情况，当吹气扩散器基本上被禁用后，我们看到他在调整自己的驾驶风格时非常挣扎。”他说。
“所以这本就是一级方程式的一部分，但心理上很煎熬，因为这曾是他的机会。这是他一直等待的机会。
“基米·安东内利，他看起来毫不受影响，对吧？他有十年的时间来把这件事做好。他只管上场全力冲刺，看看自己能取得什么成绩，看看能不能抓住这个机会。
“奇怪的是，领跑积分榜的车手似乎比追赶者的包袱更少，而这就是我们现在正在看到的情况。
奥斯卡·皮亚斯特里去年一度有望赢得一级方程式世界冠军，却经历了戏剧性的崩盘，而马克斯·维斯塔潘出人意料地成为冠军争夺者，这很好地证明了局势仍然可能发生改变。
但埃德·斯特劳认为，拉塞尔所处的困境比兰多·诺里斯更深。诺里斯当年能够从赛季初期与迈凯伦MCL39磨合不佳的困境中恢复过来，最终击败皮亚斯特里和维斯塔潘夺得总冠军。
“拉塞尔能赢得总冠军吗？嗯，是的，他绝对可以。从积分上看差距还很大，但考虑到可靠性问题以及诸如此类的因素，剩下的比赛足够多，所以还是有可能的，因为我们知道他拥有和队友同样的赛车和同样的性能潜力。”斯特劳说。
“问题在于，他是否有能力去适应、释放速度，并在对决安东内利时扭转局面？这才是最关键的问题。”
“安东内利今年丢掉了一些积分，但这完全不是他自己的错。总的来说，他就是比拉塞尔表现得更好。”
“但如果你是拉塞尔，你会想：'好，我已经完成了心态重置。我已经认真思考过了。我认为我可以改变我的驾驶风格。我可以应对这一切。我需要学会适应赛车的细微滑动（microslides）'。你必须接受赛车有这样的表现。
“如果他能说服自己可以做到这一切并付诸实现，他就会想：'那么，局势就反转了。压力就落到了安东内利身上。突然间我就要走上坡路了'，因为当一切顺利的时候，看起来毫无烦恼是很容易的，不是吗？
“如果事情进展不顺，你就会显得像肩负着全世界的重担。所以局势是可能反转的。
“这就是乔治·拉塞尔会告诉自己有可能实现的事情。确实有可能。但从我的角度来看，它的可能性大吗？并不大，因为这需要非常大的转变。
“你永远、永远不要把人排除在外，也不要太草率地断定某件事不可行。但形势确实对拉塞尔不利。
“我想说，拉塞尔对阵安东内利时所遇到的问题，比诺里斯去年上半赛季对阵皮亚斯特里时的问题更为根本。”
纳尔逊、本和埃德还讨论了凯迪拉克突然更换车队领队背后的权力变动、梅赛德斯更应该担心迈凯伦还是法拉利，以及是否可以期待车手转会季（silly season）的重磅消息。您可以在这里收听播客，或在这里观看。
英文原文
George Russell has had a lot to think about over Formula 1’s summer break as he restarts the season 50 points behind his Mercedes team-mate Kimi Antonelli, with two victories to Antonelli’s six.
So has Russell already blown his big title chance?
The Race F1 Podcast discussed that question and plenty more ahead of Zandvoort, with Dutch F1 commentator Nelson Valkenburg and Ben Anderson joining Edd Straw.
Below you’ll find a flavour of what they said, but make sure to listen to the full episode here or watch it here.
“There is always hope, especially in this season where unreliability can and has played a role for both of them, but I think in terms of pure performance, it's starting to look like his goose is cooked, just because of that underlying performance that Antonelli is showing,” Ben Anderson said.
“The margin is obviously not as big as it's looked at times because Russell has had particular technical problems on his side of the garage. He calls it an unprecedented season in his whole racing career, never mind his F1 career.
“Try and think of the last race in this season where you genuinely felt that Russell had the edge over Antonelli over the whole weekend. Not just in qualifying like Montreal, where he nabbed the pole right at the end, or Austria, where he played the yellow flags better. Both of those weekends, come the race, Antonelli was the one really digging at him or showing the superior race pace.
“So I really feel like you have to go right back to sort of Japan before the enforced break, where Russell was more on top of things than Antonelli. Ever since Miami, where he beat [Lando] Norris to victory, it's just felt like Antonelli has kind of been inevitable, even in the races he's been behind.
“He's looked eventually more impressive than his team-mate. So if that trajectory continues into the second half of the season, it's with that buffer, it's Antonelli's to lose.”
Valkenburg added: “Sunday race pace for Antonelli, that's his superpower. The relentlessness of it all, just banging in the laps, lap after lap, like there's no tyre wear, like there's no problem on deployment.
“He makes it look simple on a Sunday and it's just over-exuberance or technical failings that have kept him back a little.
“But what is going to be interesting, if [Russell] does turn it around, he will need the help of Ferrari and McLaren to be in amongst the Mercedes cars.
“If George Russell wins a race and Kimi finishes second, it doesn't do enough. But if there are four or five cars in between, it's different. Same for qualifying.”
The key to Russell’s turnaround will be cracking how to be fast in these cars, having had to move away from his natural driving style that had served him well in his F1 career prior to 2026.
“The high-speed [corners] don't exist at all [in these cars], and that's one of Russell's big strengths, so he can’t count on that any more,” Anderson explained.
“He's boxed into this very narrow way of driving the car. It favours the guys who are specifically very good at dealing with that lack of grip on the front, the nervousness, the sliding, the fact that it's almost like [driving in the] wet all the time. Just low grip.
“I don't see how he solves that. That's the heart of it. He admits that's one of his biggest problems. How do you transform yourself from a guy who's hardwired into being brave in the high speed and really sensitive to through-corner balance, if those things don't matter to the same degree anymore?
“You've got to fundamentally reprogram yourself and that's not going to happen in the space of 11 races.”
Russell isn’t the first driver needing to adapt to change to save a season, but as Valkenburg points out, history suggests it’s a very hard thing to do successfully.
“Lewis Hamilton couldn't do it in a previous iteration of F1. We've seen it with Sebastian Vettel when basically blown diffusers were outlawed, we saw him struggling to adapt his driving style,” he said.
“So this is part and parcel of F1, but it's mentally tough because this was his chance. This was the chance he'd been waiting for.
“Kimi Antonetti, he seems unbothered, right? He has a decade to get this right. He's just going to go out and push and see where this lands him, see if he can take this chance.
“It’s weird that the championship leader seems to be carrying less baggage than the one chasing, and that's what we're looking at right now.”
Oscar Piastri being on course to win the F1 title last year before a dramatic collapse and Max Verstappen’s surprise emergence as a title contender is good evidence that things can still change.
But Edd Straw feels Russell is in a deeper hole than Lando Norris, who was able to recover from early-season struggles in meshing with the McLaren MCL39 to beat Piastri and Verstappen to the title.
“Can Russell win the championship? Well, yeah, he absolutely can. Mathematically, a long way back, but with unreliability and this kind of thing, there's enough races for it to be possible because we know he's got the same machinery and the same performance potential as his team-mate,” Straw said.
“The question is, has he got the ability to adapt and unlock the pace and turn the tables on Antonelli? That's the big question.
“Antonelli's lost points this year through no fault of his own. He's just been better than Russell overall.
“But if you're Russell, you think, ‘right, I've had the reset. I've had to think about it. I think I can change my style. I can deal with all that. I need to live with the microslides'. You've got to be happy with the car doing that.
“If he can convince himself he can do all that and deliver it, he'll then think, 'well, then the tables are turned. The pressure's on Kimi Antonelli. Suddenly I'll be on the up', because it's really easy to look like nothing's worrying you when things are going well, isn't it?
“If things are going badly, you will look like you've got the weight of the world on your shoulders. So it can flip.
“Now that's what George Russell will be telling himself is possible. And it is. But is it probable from my perspective? It's not because it requires such a big swing.
“You should never, never count people out or be too quick to assume something isn't doable. But the odds are certainly against Russell.
“I would say the problems Russell is having versus Antonelli are more fundamental than the problems Norris was having versus Piastri last year in the first half of the season.”
Nelson, Ben and Edd also discussed the power shift behind Cadillac’s shock team boss change, whether Mercedes should fear McLaren or Ferrari more, and whether to expect any silly season bombshells. Listen to the podcast here or watch it here.
The Race ·
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