为何安东内利在意大利大奖赛的逆袭可能比预期更艰难
梅赛德斯决定让安东内利在主场意大利大奖赛启用本赛季第五台动力单元，他将因超出年度配额而从队尾发车。车队此举有其理性考量，但阿隆索预测他能升至第三的看法未必容易实现。
为什么基米·安东内利在意大利大奖赛的复苏可能比预期更艰难
费尔南多·阿隆索曾预测安东内利能在蒙扎从最后一位升至第三，但法拉利引擎性能的提升让这位梅赛德斯车手信心有所减弱
当梅赛德斯把感情因素放在一边，理性地决定让基米·安东内利在主场大奖赛使用第五套F1动力单元时，因为超出年度配额他将从发车区末位起步，车队这样做是有充分理由的。
凭借梅赛德斯2026年动力单元的实力，更何况还是一台全新制造的动力单元，梅赛德斯期待这位年轻挑战者能借助蒙扎的长直道迅速提升名次，把对这位19岁车手争冠征程的损害降到最低。
在如今竞争格局变得紧凑得多的背景下，安东内利究竟能走多远很难预测，同样难以预测的还有受能源供应限制的2026年赛车能带来多少超车。据阿斯顿·马丁老将阿隆索所说，梅赛德斯显然做出了正确的选择，他预测安东内利能够登上领奖台。
"前三名。这条赛道有很多直道，所以对他很有利，"阿隆索在蒙扎比赛周开始前说道。
周五练习赛几乎没有提供任何反驳这位狡猾西班牙人的证据，梅赛德斯定下了基调，拉塞尔在第二次自由练习中领跑。不过虽然迈凯伦看起来处于被动，法拉利改进后的动力单元却似乎要来搅局，安东内利必须击败勒克莱尔和汉密尔顿中的至少一位，才能与赛前大热门拉塞尔一同登上领奖台，同时他还要克服从队尾发车带来的赛道位置劣势以及预计约20秒的比赛时间损失。
安东内利在练习中看到的景象——他在跟在法拉利赛车后面进行正赛调校时——并没有给他带来信心。
"法拉利在新引擎方面确实前进了一步，现在最高速度已经持平了,"安东内利表示。"我们知道他们的车在弯道里有多强，所以明天与拉塞尔争夺杆位肯定会是一场激烈的较量。
"这是一条可以尝试很多不同东西的赛道，今天的长距离测试很有意思，跟在其他车后面观察他们做了什么不同的调整，他们的能量部署（英文：deployment）在哪里和我们的不一样。
安东内利声称梅赛德斯和法拉利的最高速度相同，这一点在GPS数据上并不完全站得住脚，因为在排位赛模式下，拉塞尔的梅赛德斯在蒙扎四条长直道中的三条上明显高于法拉利赛车，差距平均在5公里每小时左右。
"直道速度是相当需要担心的问题,"汉密尔顿说。"光看刚才的差值，我在直道上就落后了乔治大约0.6秒。这是我们需要研究的东西。
唯一一个局面反转的直道是通往最后一弯帕拉波利卡的那条长直道，法拉利在那里快了5到6公里/小时，这表明在前面的阿斯卡里变线——那个快速的左-右-左组合弯——中，法拉利采用了不同的能量释放策略。
费尔南多·阿隆索预测基米·安东内利将登上领奖台。
当被问到阿隆索关于登台的预测时，梅赛德斯的副领队布拉德利·洛德表示，位于布拉克利的车队同样会为安东内利获得大量积分而感到满意。
洛德说："如果费尔南多的赌注兑现、他真能猜中，那我们确实会非常高兴。""我认为我们的目标是争取进入稳稳能拿积分的位置。我们看到乔治在匈牙利实际上是从队尾发车的，之后仍然能够追回到那个位置。在起步时遇到那个问题之后，他依然成功冲了上去。"
"很难对此做出太精确的预测，因为你不知道比赛会如何展开，虚拟安全车和安全车会带来什么影响。在过去几场比赛中，我们在虚拟安全车（VSC）方面有点不走运，所以也许现在是命运之轮转向的时候了，也希望有一些事情能对我们有利。"
意大利大奖赛——周六，图集
英文原文
Why Kimi Antonelli’s Italian GP recovery may be tougher than expected
Fernando Alonso tipped Antonelli to climb from last to third at Monza, but Ferrari’s improved engine performance has made the Mercedes driver less confident
When Mercedes put sentiment to one side and made the rational decision to let Kimi Antonelli take a fifth Formula 1 power unit in his home race, landing him a back-of-the-grid start for exceeding his allowance for the year, it did so for a good reason.
With the strength of Mercedes' 2026 power unit, and a freshly built example no less, Mercedes is expecting its young challenger to quickly move up the order on Monza's long straights, limiting the damage to the 19-year-old's title campaign.
Quite how far Antonelli can go on what has become a much tighter field is tough to predict, along with how much overtaking the energy-starved 2026 cars will produce. According to Aston Martin veteran Fernando Alonso, Mercedes certainly made the right call as he predicted a podium spot for Antonelli.
"Top three. There are a lot of straights, so it is good for him," Alonso said ahead of the Monza weekend.
Friday practice offered little evidence to contradict the wily Spaniard, as Mercedes set the tone with George Russell leading FP2. But while McLaren looked like it was on the back foot, Ferrari's improved power unit appears to throw a spanner in the works, as Antonelli would have to defeat at least one of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to join pre-event favourite Russell on the rostrum, while also overcoming the track position and estimated 20-second race-time loss associated with starting from the back.
What Antonelli saw in practice, working on his race set-up while following the Ferraris around, didn't inspire confidence.
"Ferrari definitely took a step forward with the new engine and now the speeds are the same," Antonelli reported. "We know how good their car is in the corners, so for sure it's going to be a tight fight for pole tomorrow [with Russell].
"It's a track where you can do so many different things and it was interesting in the long run today, running behind other cars to see what they were doing differently, where they were deploying compared to us."
Antonelli's claim that the top speeds between Mercedes and Ferrari are the same doesn't quite pass the GPS test, as in qualifying trim Russell's Mercedes was noticeably up on the Ferraris across three of Monza's four long straights, the gap sitting around an average of 5km/h.
"Straight-line speed, it's considerable to worry about," Hamilton said. "Just looking at the deltas just there, I was losing something like six tenths to George, just in the straights. Which is something we need to look into."
The only straight where the tables were turned was the long run towards Parabolica, the final corner, where the Ferraris were 5-6km/h faster, a telltale sign of a different energy deployment strategy through the preceding Variante Ascari, the fast left-right-left combination.
Fernando Alonso predicted a podium finish for Kimi Antonelli
When asked about Alonso's podium prediction, Mercedes' deputy team principal Bradley Lord said the Brackley squad would also be satisfied with a strong haul of points for Antonelli.
"If Fernando's bet pays off and it pays out for him, then we'll be very happy indeed," Lord said. "I think we're aiming to get up into solid points-paying positions. We saw George able to do that in Hungary after effectively starting from the back. Following this challenge he had off the start line, he was still able to get back up there.
"It's hard to put too precise a prediction on it, just because you don't know how the race will unfold, what virtual safety cars and safety cars might do. We've seen in the last few races we've been a little unlucky with VSCs, so maybe it's time for the wheel to turn on that one and something to play into our hands as well."
Italian Grand Prix - Saturday, in photos
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