梅赛德斯何时将在2026年成为F1世界冠军？
2026赛季的F1中，梅赛德斯回归了其过去的统治地位，有望赢得自COVID影响的2020赛季以来的首个双冠王胜利。
梅赛德斯何时将在2026年成为F1世界冠军？
德国品牌正朝着赢得2026年F1车手和车队双冠王的目标迈进。
乔治·拉塞尔和安德烈亚·安东内利领跑车手积分榜，其中安东内利以102分的优势领先。
基米·安东内利和乔治·拉塞尔领跑车手积分榜，前者领先102分，而梅赛德斯在车队积分榜上以134分的优势领先第二名的法拉利。
得益于在17场大奖赛中的11次胜利，银箭车队在新规则开始时处于这个位置，其中大部分胜利都是在早期取得的，因为随后对手缩小了差距。
尽管如此，梅赛德斯车队在经历了马克斯·维斯塔潘的统治和兰多·诺里斯夺冠之后，即将迎来自2020年以来的首个车手冠军，车队积分榜上也是类似的情况。
银箭车队上一次赢得该锦标赛是在2021年，在红牛和麦凯轮在地面效应时代超越它之前，但在2026年还剩下六轮比赛的情况下，梅赛德斯车队注定要取得荣耀。
安东内利有望在奥斯汀的下一场比赛中赢得他的首个世界冠军，尽管他更有可能在墨西哥的一周后实现这一目标，而梅赛德斯可能需要等待更长的时间才能赢得车队冠军。
有多少车队还能赢得2026年F1世界冠军？
安东内利，梅赛德斯，刘易斯·汉密尔顿，法拉利
在2026年F1世界车队锦标赛中，还剩下258个积分可供争夺，前提是卡塔尔和阿布扎比的比赛能在持续的中东冲突中得到顺利进行。
这意味着还有四支车队在数学上有机会赢得比赛，因为梅赛德斯领先法拉利134分，领先麦克拉伦239分，领先红牛246分——第五名的小红牛落后478分。
梅赛德斯能否在美国大奖赛上赢得2026年F1世界冠军？
当F1在下周末在奥斯汀迎来终点线时，2026年车队 constructors’ championship 还剩下215分可用。
这意味着美国大奖赛很可能会看到麦克拉伦和红牛退出竞争，因为他们需要在奥斯汀之后缩小到214分以内。
因为它比两支车队多赢九场比赛，所以如果麦凯轮和红牛在德克萨斯州将其差距缩小到215分，他们仍然会因为胜利次数的回溯而退出竞争。
鉴于这需要卫冕冠军和红牛分别至少比梅赛德斯多出25分和32分，法拉利是唯一可能威胁到德国品牌的威胁。
并且无论发生什么，斯库德里亚都将在美国仍然落后梅赛德斯214分以内，因此构造者冠军将在下个周末无法决定。
梅赛德斯什么时候能赢得2026年F1世界冠军？
法拉利在奥斯汀的最坏情况是，它将获得双非积分，而梅赛德斯车队以1-2的成绩结束，这将使它们之间有177分的差距。
如果这种不太可能的情况发生，德国品牌将有机会在墨西哥城获得其第九个车队总冠军，这将使它在所有时间榜上与威廉姆斯车队持平，排在法拉利（16分）和麦克拉伦车队（10分）之后。
再次强调，如果卡塔尔和阿布扎比的比赛顺利进行，墨西哥之后的四场大奖赛将提供172分。因此，如果奥斯汀的情况如上所述发生，梅赛德斯车队只需确保在墨西哥不要落后法拉利至少6分即可。
然而，在本赛季的任何时候，梅赛德斯车队都没有在法拉利一分未得的情况下从大奖赛中全取积分，如下表所示——不包括冲刺赛，因为2026年已经没有剩余的冲刺赛了。
看着这个，梅赛德斯在17场大奖赛中的平均得分比法拉利高出7.6分，如果这种情况在接下来的两场比赛中发生，那么差距将达到149分。
因此，即使梅赛德斯在墨西哥夺冠也是一个艰巨的任务。F1很可能会在巴西大奖赛之后，也就是下一站，看到银箭车队可能成为世界冠军。
英文原文
When will Mercedes become F1 world champions in 2026?
The German marque is on course to win both the F1 2026 drivers' and constructors' titles
George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
The 2026 Formula 1 season has seen Mercedes return to its dominant past as it is on course to claim its first double championship victory since the COVID-struck 2020 campaign.
Kimi Antonelli and George Russell top the drivers’ standings with the former holding a 102-point advantage, while Mercedes leads second-placed Ferrari by 134 points in the constructors’ table.
It is thanks to 11 victories in 17 grands prix that the Silver Arrows is in this position at the start of the new regulations, most of those wins coming early on as rivals subsequently closed the gap.
Regardless, Mercedes is set for its first drivers’ title since 2020 after a period of Max Verstappen domination and a crown for Lando Norris, with it being a similar story in the constructors.
The Silver Arrows last won that championship in 2021 before Red Bull and McLaren overtook it during the ground-effect era, but with six rounds remaining in 2026, Mercedes is set for glory.
Antonelli can clinch his maiden world title next time out in Austin, though is most likely going to do it a week later in Mexico, whereas Mercedes may have to wait a little longer to win the teams’ crown.
How many teams can still win the F1 2026 world title?
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari
There are 258 points left on offer in the 2026 F1 world constructors’ championship table, provided Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead amid the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict.
That means there are four teams left with a mathematical shot, as Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points, McLaren by 239 and Red Bull by 246 - fifth-placed Racing Bulls is 478 behind.
Can Mercedes win the F1 2026 world title at the US GP?
When F1 greets the chequered flag in Austin next weekend, there will be 215 points left available in the 2026 constructors’ championship.
That means the United States Grand Prix is likely to see McLaren and Red Bull drop out of contention, as they would need to be within 214 points post-Austin.
It is because Mercedes has nine more wins than both squads, so if McLaren and Red Bull cut it to 215 in Texas, they would still be eliminated from the fight due to countback of victories.
Given that would require the reigning champions and Red Bull outscoring Mercedes by at least 25 and 32 points respectively, Ferrari is realistically the only threat to the German marque.
And because the Scuderia will leave the United States still within 214 points of Mercedes regardless of what happens, the constructors’ title will not be decided next weekend.
When can Mercedes win the F1 2026 world title?
The worst-case scenario for Ferrari in Austin is that it experiences a double non-points score with Mercedes finishing 1-2, which would leave a 177-point gap between them.
If that unlikely scenario happens, the German marque heads to Mexico City with a chance of claiming its ninth constructors’ title - moving level with Williams on the all-time list behind Ferrari (16) and McLaren (10).
Again, provided Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead, there are 172 points available in the four grands prix after Mexico. So, if the above scenario in Austin happens, Mercedes would just need to make sure that Ferrari doesn’t outscore it by at least six points in Mexico.
Yet at no point this season has Mercedes taken a full score from a grand prix with Ferrari taking nothing, as the below table indicates - excluding sprint races as there are none left in 2026.
Looking at that, Mercedes has outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points across the 17 grands prix so if that were to happen across the next two, it leaves a gap of 149 points.
So even for Mercedes to clinch the title in Mexico is a tough ask. F1 is most likely looking at the grand prix afterwards, in Brazil, where the Silver Arrows could become world champions.
Motorsport.com ·
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