梅赛德斯对手在2026赛季F1中犯下的重大错误
据Ben Anderson报道，安东内利的竞争对手们几乎已放弃争夺2026年F1年度冠军。报道指出，其他车队的失误让Antonelli和梅赛德斯的日子变得更加轻松。
在刘易斯·汉密尔顿和乔治·拉塞尔都经历了一场令人失望的西班牙大奖赛之后，这两位在积分榜上最接近领跑者基米·安东内利的车手，几乎已经承认2026年一级方程式锦标赛的冠军争夺在此时已经结束。
当然，这里面可能有一些心理战的因素，但无论如何，安东内利加冕似乎越来越不可避免。马德里是他今年14场比赛中的第8个大奖赛胜利，而他的对手们至今都未能获得足以减缓他步伐的那种势头。
不计冲刺赛，拉塞尔自六场比赛前的奥地利站以来就再未获胜。汉密尔顿自那之前的巴塞罗那站以来也再未获胜。而兰多·诺里斯，在积分榜上还落后汉密尔顿五分，过去四场比赛为迈凯伦赢下了两场，但在此之前他经历了一段10场比赛仅3次登上领奖台的稀疏表现。
马克斯·维斯塔潘在2025年不可思议地追至仅落后诺里斯两分，这在这里构成了一个巨大的警示，但就目前情况而言，汉密尔顿需要从比维斯塔潘在赛季这个阶段更靠后的位置追赶——而且可能比维斯塔潘当时还剩下的10场比赛更少来弥补差距——才能让争夺变得有看头，更不用说击败安东内利了。
在西班牙大奖赛因刹车问题退赛之后，Hamilton宣称：“今年没人能阻止他[Antonelli]和梅赛德斯”，而在那场比赛中获得第五名的Russell也表示，考虑到Antonelli在同一辆赛车中表现始终更为稳定，他所面临的81分差距很可能已无法逾越。
“我不会说一切已经结束，但我参与这场争夺的可能性极其渺茫，”Russell说道。他最终发现，驾驶这些低抓地力、能量匮乏的F1赛车，比Antonelli所感受到的要困难得多。
“我甚至都没想过自己会参与这场争夺，因为我认为我并没有参与其中。”
当Verstappen和Norris在马德里赛后新闻发布会上分坐在Antonelli两侧时，落后近150分的Verstappen开玩笑说“我肯定不会上演逆转”，而Norris则称赞了Antonelli在仅仅第二个F1赛季中“好得令人害怕的表现”，随后表示这位梅赛德斯车手“极有可能继续前进并赢得总冠军”。
那么事情是怎么发展到这一步的——为什么2026年的冠军争夺这么快就变成了一人独秀，而不是多支车队（以及多位车手）的较量？
法拉利确实用他们赛季初的承诺把我们骗了进去。这辆车在弯道里看起来太好了——很多人说它是发车格上最好的——以至于看起来跃马只差几次引擎升级就能成为那支难以击败的车队。
但事情并没有那样发展。为了提升底盘性能而故意牺牲引擎性能，不仅体现在排气翼等某些设计特征上，也体现在引擎的运作方式上，最终在一个由引擎性能主导的赛季里——尤其是在那些能源更匮乏的赛道上——看起来像是走错了方向。
除此之外，法拉利在政治博弈中也落了下风——在赛季初关于发车程序和安全问题的争论中站到了错误的一边，抵消了法拉利较小涡轮设计所带来的关键优势之一，同时在额外研发与升级机会方面也是如此——梅赛德斯不知怎么地得以升级自己的引擎并保持明显优势。
法拉利在赛季中为蒙扎引入的第二项ADUO引擎升级，在法拉利的性能表现方面实际上还没有真正起到推动作用。而且，尽管法拉利在整个赛季中对底盘升级非常积极，以一些创新设计特点走在前列，但其中许多被证明很容易被对手复制，还有一些无论如何很快就会遭到禁用。
所以法拉利最终看起来还是有点像它一贯的样子——相当受限，还有点异类。这就引出了几个问题：
在赛季初的那些会议上，它是否应该就延长发车程序前的时间说更多的话？
它是否应该从一开始就采用更大的涡轮？
考虑到两位车手今年有时在制动系统上遇到的困难，它在后轮制动设计上是否应该更激进一些？
它在整体发动机概念上是否应该更激进一些？
它是否应该花更多时间研究如何管理车手？
最后这一点最近已成为一个真正的热门话题，而且幕后局势变得如此紧张，以至于Hamilton觉得有必要公开驳斥那些称他正在推动更多人事变动的报道——这些报道是在Zandvoort和Monza错失机会之后出现的。
这突然让人感觉非常像昔日的那支法拉利，被车手政治、沟通不畅以及迟钝的战略思维和执行所瘫痪。
现在马拉内罗的焦点自然会转向2027年，届时车队中每个人肯定都会承受巨大压力，以弥补本赛季的失误。
诺里斯在过去四场比赛中势头强劲，拿下三个杆位和两场胜利，而考虑到他在马德里展现出的统治力，这本当是三场胜利。
有理由质疑，这究竟只是近期赛道特性恰好与迈凯伦2026款赛车的特定特征相契合，还是一种更广泛趋势的开端，而这种趋势应当在2027年带来真正的争冠冲击。
这是我们在最近一期《The 比赛 F1 Podcast》的 Mailbag 节目中讨论过的一个问题，在那一期里，加入 The 比赛 Members' Club 的会员可以提出问题，而这些问题会塑造我们对 F1 的讨论方向。
迈凯伦最近展现出的这种表现，正是你会真正期待卫冕 F1 冠军从一开始就具备的水准，但像这样姗姗来迟地加入前排竞争，是 Andrea Stella 承认其车队在专注于 2025 年与 Verstappen 和 红牛 的较量时落后于研发曲线三个月所导致的后果。
迈凯伦在进入 2026 年新规时，基本上把注意力集中在给赛车减重上，考虑到其他车队——尤其是 阿斯顿·马丁 和 威廉姆斯——在达到这一目标上被证明有多么困难，这是可以理解的。
迈凯伦缩短了轴距，以便让这一过程更容易，随后却发现赛车缺少足够的地板面积来追求额外的空气动力学性能。如果时间可以重来，迈凯伦承认它会选择更长的轴距，并且很可能会在 2027 年把赛车做得更长。
“明年我们最终会造出一辆更长的赛车，”迈凯伦工程技术总监尼尔·霍尔迪在八月休赛期确认道，“因为在空气动力学上，这样能让你在地板区域获得稍大一些的平面面积。”
这一切都回到了阻力问题以及如何避免它。直线模式并未像迈凯伦在2026年预测的那样高效，因此它需要找到方法，让赛车本身在直线上更高效，同时还要增加下压力。
迈凯伦曾尝试制造一种类似红牛那样的翻转式尾翼，但花了很长时间才让它正常工作，而当它终于奏效时，迈凯伦只在蒙扎使用过一次。这引发了疑问：该设计究竟是一次性的奇招，还是能在更广泛赛道上使用的东西。
迈凯伦还有几个其他悬而未决的问题，涉及梅赛德斯客户身份，以及迈凯伦今年再次被降格为纯粹客户车队的感受——此前它曾与自己的引擎制造商享有准厂商关系。
迈凯伦在赛季初的能量部署问题，以及使用比大多数赛道理想值更短的齿轮比，其根源在于迈凯伦和梅赛德斯在2026年变得更像是亦敌亦友。
迈凯伦仍在努力解决其中一些问题，尽管目前的赛车或许已成为高速弯道中的标杆，但车手们仍然很难从中榨取最大潜力——尤其是在较慢的赛道以及需要一定刹车与转向结合的入弯处。
但如果迈凯伦能保持我们在过去四场比赛中看到的轨迹，完全有理由相信这支2025年的冠军车队能在2027年对安东内利和梅赛德斯构成真正的威胁。
有时候你只需要全身心投入比赛，而在经历了2026年的艰难开局后，这正是维斯塔潘目前似乎所处的状态。
今年一开始，他讨厌F1：这项运动太过于依赖电池，电池主导了赛车，让赛车变得太慢，也让普通F1车手太容易跳进来就有竞争力。
但整个夏天发生了一种微妙的变化。并不是说维斯塔潘比以前更喜欢这个版本的F1，而是他已经接受了现实：这是目前唯一的舞台——他需要充分利用它。
尽管2026年的红牛赛车很难调校到理想状态，但过去五场比赛中的四次登上领奖台表明，维斯塔潘终于开始找到一些节奏。
对于他的红牛车队来说，前景要更困难一些。在克里斯蒂安·霍纳和赫尔穆特·马尔科离开之后，他们看起来和感觉上都像是一个仍在过渡中的团队——而自从14个多月前霍纳被解雇引发突然破裂以来，还会有更多变动随之而来。
英文原文
In the wake of an underwhelming Spanish Grand Prix for both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, the two drivers closest to championship leader Kimi Antonelli in the standings, they have all but conceded the 2026 Formula 1 title race is over at this point.
There could be some psychology going on here, of course, but there does anyway feel like an increasing inevitability about Antonelli being crowned. Madrid was his eighth grand prix victory from 14 starts this year, and none of his rivals have yet been able to gain the sort of momentum needed to slow him down.
Not counting sprints, Russell hasn't won since Austria, six races ago. Hamilton hasn't won since the race before that, at Barcelona. And Lando Norris, who sits a further five points behind Hamilton in the championship, has won two of the past four races for McLaren but coming off a sparse run of just three podiums in 10 races before that.
Max Verstappen's incredible comeback to just two points adrift of Norris in 2025 creates a massive caveat here, but as things stand Hamilton would need to come from even further back than Verstappen was at this stage in the season - with potentially fewer than the 10 races Verstappen still had available to him to make up the ground - to even make a fight of it, let alone defeat Antonelli.
And after his brake-related retirement from the Spanish GP, Hamilton declared: "There's no stopping him [Antonelli] and Mercedes this year", while Russell, who finished fifth in that race, also indicated the 81-point deficit he faces, considering also how Antonelli is performing so consistently better in the same car, is likely insurmountable.
"I'm not going to say it's over, but it's exceptionally unlikely that I'm in this fight," said Russell who has ultimately found the challenge of driving these lower-grip, energy-starved F1 cars a much tougher nut to crack than Antonelli has.
"I'm not even thinking about being in the fight because I don't think I am in the fight."
When Verstappen and Norris were sat either side of Antonelli in the post-race press conference in Madrid, Verstappen joked "I'm definitely not having a comeback" from almost 150 points adrift, while Norris praised the "scarily good job" Antonelli is doing in only his second season in F1, before saying the Mercedes driver is "more than likely going to go on and win the championship".
So how did it come to this - why has the 2026 title race so quickly become a one-man show, rather than a multi-team (and driver) fight?
Ferrari really suckered us in with their early-season promise. The car looked so good in the corners - the best on the grid many said - that it seemed the Scuderia was only a few engine upgrades away from becoming the team to beat.
But it hasn't worked out that way. Deliberately compromising engine performance to boost chassis performance, not only in certain design features like the exhaust wing but also in the way the engine is operated, has ended up looking like a wrong turn in a season so dominated by engine performance - especially on the more energy-starved circuits.
On top of this, Ferrari has been out-manoeuvred politically - ending up on the wrong side of early season arguments about startline procedures and safety, negating one of the key advantages conferred by Ferrari's smaller turbo design, and also with ADUO (Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities) - whereby Mercedes has somehow been able to upgrade its own engine and maintain a clear advantage.
The second of Ferrari's two in-season ADUO engine upgrades, introduced for Monza, hasn't really moved the needle yet in terms of Ferrari's performance profile. And although Ferrari has been super aggressive in upgrading its chassis throughout the season, leading the way with some innovative design features, many of them have proved easy for rivals to copy, and some of them will soon be banned regardless.
So Ferrari has ended up looking a bit like it always does - quite limited and a bit of an outlier. Which leads to a few questions:
Should it have said more in those meetings about extending the pre-start procedure at the start of the season?
Should it have gone for a bigger turbo from the very beginning?
Should it have been more aggressive with its rear brake design, considering the difficulties both drivers have had with the braking system at times this year?
Should it have been more aggressive with its overall engine concept?
And should it have spent more time figuring out how to manage the drivers?
This last aspect has become a real talking point recently, and things have become so tense behind the scenes that Hamilton has felt the need to publicly refute stories he is pushing for more personnel changes in the wake of fumbled opportunities at Zandvoort and Monza.
This suddenly feels very much like the Ferrari of old, paralysed by driver politics, unclear communication and flat-footed strategic thinking and execution.
Focus will naturally move towards 2027 now at Maranello, where there will surely be enormous pressure building on everyone in that team to make up for the missteps of this season.
Norris is on a tear of three poles and two wins from the past four races, which really should have been three wins considering how dominantly he performed in Madrid.
It's sensible to question whether this is simply the nature of recent circuit profiles intersecting neatly with the particular characteristics of McLaren's 2026 car, or the beginning of a broader trend that should lead to a proper title push in 2027.
This is a question we tackled in a recent Mailbag episode of The Race F1 Podcast, where those signed up to The Race Members' Club get to pose the questions that shape our conversations about F1.
The sort of thing we've seen from McLaren recently is what you'd really expect from the reigning F1 champions from the get-go, but this sort of late arrival to the front of the grid is a consequence of the three months Andrea Stella admits his team fell behind the development curve while focused on its 2025 battle with Verstappen and Red Bull.
McLaren basically came into the new 2026 rules fixated on getting weight out of the car, which is understandable considering how difficult it's proved for other teams - particularly Aston Martin and Williams - to hit that target.
McLaren shortened the wheelbase to make this process easier and then discovered the car lacked sufficient floor area to chase additional aerodynamic performance. If it had its time again, McLaren admits it would have gone for a longer wheelbase and probably will make its car longer for 2027.
"For next year we'll end up with a longer car," confirmed McLaren's engineering technical director Neil Houldey during the August break, "because aerodynamically you give yourself a little bit more plan area on the floor."
That all comes back to the question of drag and how to avoid it. Straightline mode hasn't proved as efficient as McLaren predicted in 2026, and so it needs to find ways to make the car itself more efficient in a straight line while also adding downforce.
McLaren tried making a flip-flop rear wing, similar to Red Bull's one, but it took ages to get working and when it did finally work, McLaren's only used it once, at Monza. Which raises questions over whether the design is a one-hit wonder rather than something usable on a broader range of circuits.
There's a couple of other loose ends with McLaren that relate to Mercedes customer status and the feeling McLaren has been relegated to being a pure customer again this year, having previously enjoyed a quasi-works relationship with its engine builder.
McLaren's early-season problems with energy deployment, as well as using gear ratios that are shorter than ideal for most tracks, have roots in McLaren and Mercedes becoming more like frenemies in 2026.
McLaren is still in the process of working through some of these problems and, although the current car has become perhaps the class leader in high-speed corners, it is still proving tricky for the drivers to extract the most from - particularly on slower tracks and corner entries that require a degree of combined braking and steering.
But if McLaren can stay on the trajectory we've seen over the past four races, there's every reason to believe the 2025 champions can be a proper threat to Antonelli and Mercedes in 2027.
Sometimes you just need to get your head in the game, and after a troubled start to 2026 that's where Verstappen seems to be right now.
He started off this year hating F1: it's too much about the battery, the battery dominates the car, it makes the cars too slow, and too easy for an average F1 driver to jump in and be competitive.
But there's been a subtle shift over the summer. It's not that Verstappen particularly enjoys this version of F1 more than he did before, but he's come to terms with the fact it's the only show in town right now - and he needs to make the best of it.
And even though the 2026 Red Bull has been tricky to make work, four podiums from the past five races suggests Verstappen is finally starting to find some rhythm.
For his Red Bull team the outlook is a bit more difficult. They look and feel like a group still in transition following the departures of Christian Horner and Helmut Marko - with more to come in the wake of that sudden rupture triggered by Horner's sacking more than 14 months ago.
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